Desde la Dirección General de Vigilancia de la Salud (DGVS), alertan a las autoridades nacionales, departamentales y distritales, y a toda la ciudadanía que, comparado al nivel regional y global, el impacto de COVID-19 en Paraguay va en dirección de alcanzar magnitudes alarmantes.
Mencionaron que una forma de comparar el impacto del COVID-19 en el tiempo y en poblaciones distintas es a través de la tasa de mortalidad específica. Este indicador del impacto local de la epidemia se obtiene registrando las muertes ocurridas en un periodo por la población afectada, esto es, multiplicando en número de muertes reportadas en un día por un millón y dividiendo por el tamaño de la población referida.
Según puede constatarse en la plataforma ourworldindata, a la fecha, Paraguay es el segundo país con más muertes diarias por millón de habitantes en la región. A escala global considerando este indicador la situación en la región es peor a la reportada en India, país que ha tomado notoriedad internacional debido a su gran población y alta mortalidad.
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En este sentido, explicaron que hasta el momento, Uruguay ha reportado el récord máximo para la región, con un promedio diario de 18,55 muertes por millón, exhibiendo una tendencia decreciente desde mediados de abril, al igual que Brasil. En contraste, Paraguay exhibe una tendencia creciente. Considerando el marco teórico de uno de los modelos tipo SEIR (e.g. proyecciones IHME) y el dato empírico de Uruguay y Brasil, se espera que el número de fallecidos en Paraguay continúe en aumento. Las proyecciones indican que aún no atravesamos los meses más críticos.
El reporte semanal de COVID-19 señala que al corte de la semana epidemiológica 17, en el país, el promedio diario de muertes por millón de habitantes es de 13,37 casos. Esta magnitud es cuatro veces mayor a lo reportado en el peor momento de la primera ola en la semana 41 de 2020.
En cuanto al tiempo de duplicación de las muertes es de 47 días, exhibiendo una tendencia de aceleración al contrastar con las semanas previas. De mantenerse el ritmo actual, las proyecciones indican que para el 22 de mayo se podrían alcanzar 8.795 óbitos, aproximadamente 2.200 nuevos decesos reportados en los próximos 21 días, un promedio diario de 110 muertes. En este sentido se espera llegar a un promedio diario de 14,8 muertes por millón.
Duplicación de confirmados y transmisibilidad
Hay que destacar que el reporte revela que el promedio de nuevos casos diarios es de 2.442, y no es significativamente diferente a las semanas previas. Se reporta un cambio porcentual positivo de 3,48% con respecto a un promedio móvil de las semanas previas. Se evidencia una tendencia aún de aumento en la curva epidémica.
Por otra parte, la cifra de internaciones en Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos (UCI) muestra un récord máximo de 563 pacientes en un día. Las internaciones generales muestran un repunte desde inicios de febrero y un cambio de ritmo abrupto desde mediados de abril, con un nuevo máximo de 2.525 pacientes reportados en un único día.
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Con relación al tiempo de duplicación del total confirmados es de 77,24 días. Las proyecciones revelan que de conservarse este ritmo se espera que los casos reportados al 22 de mayo sumen 337.723, aproximadamente 55.486 casos nuevos en los próximos 21 días, un promedio diario de 2.640 casos.
Hablaron además acerca de la transmisibilidad (Rt), es decir el promedio de contagios por infectados reportados, el cual es de 1,02 y significativamente distinto a 1 en el intervalo de credibilidad. Con base a los casos nuevos reportados, la evolución de la transmisibilidad en la semana indica una tendencia creciente en la curva epidémica. Hasta el momento, la tasa de positividad diaria es de 35,7% en promedio, esto es, una de cada tres pruebas laboratoriales resulta positiva, reportado en función a un promedio de 6.290 muestras diarias procesadas.
Situación por departamentos
En lo que respecta a incidencia de casos COVID-19, Asunción (1.248,5) es la localidad con más casos nuevos en las últimas dos semanas por cien mil habitantes, seguido de Central (640,8), Cordillera (452,4), Pdte. Hayes (427,4), Itapúa (420), Misiones (414,5), Guairá (400,7), Alto Paraguay (381,8), Ñeembucú (366,2), Paraguarí (329,8), Concepción (253,2), Caaguazú (240,6), Caazapá (219,2), Boquerón (217,4), Alto Paraná (212,8), San Pedro (179,6), Canindeyú (129,1) y Amambay (118,5).
Así también, unos 12 departamentos muestran un cambio porcentual negativo de casos nuevos con respecto a la última semana, a excepción de Itapúa, Guairá, Concepción y San Pedro. Mientras que seis departamentos muestran una transmisibilidad (promedio de contagios por infectados detectados) menor a 1, estos son: Asunción, Alto Paraguay, Ñeembucú, Paraguarí, Boquerón y Amambay.
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